Some market watchers are worried over the government’s heavy reliance on gold exports to build the country’s reserves, identifying it as a key underlying risk to the implementation of the 2026 Budget.
They point to volatility in international gold prices as a major vulnerability.
These concerns echo warnings from Fitch Solutions, which says risks to Ghana’s economic growth outlook remain tilted to the downside.
The UK-based firm identifies gold prices as the principal vulnerability, noting that its Commodities Team expects prices to average a record US$3,700 per ounce in 2026.
Analysts caution that while elevated gold prices may provide short-term fiscal relief, a sudden correction in global markets could weaken external buffers and place renewed pressure on the cedi.
This, they argue, underscores the need for a more diversified reserve-building strategy that is less exposed to commodity price shocks.
In an interview, finance and tax analyst Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi urged the government to reduce its overdependence on commodity exports, even as some commodities continue to perform strongly.
“Cocoa has done very well, we have also exported crude oil, remittances have contributed significantly, and inflows from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have supported the reserves we have built. However, we cannot rely solely on commodity exports because of their inherent price volatility. We do not control international commodity prices, but where prices are favorable, we should take advantage of the windfall and continue to build reserves to support the stability of the cedi,” he said.
He further noted that broadening the export base would help cushion the economy against external shocks and enhance long-term macroeconomic stability.
