Crude oil markets faced sharp selling pressure this week as traders digested a mix of bearish supply signals from OPEC+, a surprise inventory build in the U.S., and growing expectations for looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
WTI front-month futures settled at $63.30 on Thursday, down over 1% for the week and marking their lowest close since August 20.
Traders remain laser-focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this Sunday, where eight member nations are expected to push for additional supply increases starting in October. This potential policy shift—moving away from price support and toward market share recovery—has realigned trader expectations for the balance of Q3. As bearish sentiment intensifies, market players are now questioning whether supply-side pressures and sluggish demand indicators will keep crude prices under pressure heading into fall.
OPEC+ Eyes October Output Hike to Reclaim Market Share
OPEC+ discussions have centered on accelerating the unwind of existing production cuts, with proposals to raise output targets by an additional 1.65 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 1.6% of global demand. This would come on top of the already planned 2.2 million bpd increase from April through September and a separate 300,000 bpd bump for the UAE.
According to PVM analyst Tamas Varga, the shift reflects a deliberate change in strategy, as core producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE grow confident that strong demand.
