Light Crude Oil Futures (WTI) ended Thursday at $59.67, up $1.12 on the week, a 1.91% advance that unfolded within a range of $58.28 to $60.02.
The narrow climb masked a week defined by sharp swings as traders weighed expanding geopolitical risk against persistently weak fundamentals.
With supply threats intensifying and demand signals softening, positioning skewed defensive and liquidity thinned on approaches toward the $60 handle.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Drives Oil Prices
Escalating strikes on Russian infrastructure remained the central catalyst for the market’s risk premium. Ukrainian forces hit the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region for the fifth time this year, once again targeting a network critical to flows into Hungary and Slovakia. Although operators reported uninterrupted throughput, traders viewed the repeated attacks as evidence that Russia’s export system remains exposed to further disruption.
Diplomatic channels offered little relief. US envoys left Moscow without progress, and President Trump signaled uncertainty about any next round of peace discussions. The Kremlin warned that it may respond by targeting vessels owned by countries supporting Ukraine, a move that could unsettle tanker routes in the Black Sea and raise freight rates more broadly. The sharpening rhetoric kept option volatility elevated and widened front-month spreads as markets priced a greater probability of unexpected outages.
