Ghana’s inflation will average 15% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, Fitch Ratings has revealed.
This will be down from 23% in 2024, helped by the large appreciation of the cedi since April 2025, a still tight monetary policy stance and fiscal consolidation.
According to the UK-based firm, the size of the pass-through of exchange rate appreciation is uncertain, but it believes it will rapidly contribute to a moderation in domestic inflation, backed up by lower oil prices and international food prices.
It also projected that the Bank of Ghana will start cutting its policy rate in July 2025.
Ghana’s year-on-year inflation rate for May 2025 dropped to 18.4%, its lowest point since February 2022.
This marked a continued decrease for the fifth consecutive month, down from 21.2% in April 2025. The primary driver of this decline is a significant drop in transport fares, attributed to lower fuel prices, and a slowdown in the rate of increase for non-food items.
Resilient Growth
Meanwhile, Fitch said the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has proved resilient throughout the restructuring process, at 3.1% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2024.
“We anticipate growth will remain solid, at 4% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, on a rebound in agricultural output after a steep decline in cocoa production in recent years, and a continued expansion of the industrial and services sectors”, it added.
