Light crude oil futures settled at $61.50 on Thursday, up $0.62 or 1.02% for the week so far, with one trading day remaining.
The move capped a choppy week marked by cautious optimism surrounding OPEC+ supply restraint, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and persistent oversupply concerns in the U.S. and global markets.
The bullish and bearish factors largely neutralized each other, but near-term direction remains uncertain as traders weigh competing signals heading into next week.
OPEC+ Maintains Cautious Output Path Despite Surplus Risks
A key bullish catalyst during the week was OPEC+’s decision to raise production by just 137,000 barrels per day in November—matching October’s increase and falling below market expectations. Some had anticipated a much larger hike, particularly from Saudi Arabia, which reportedly advocated for a more aggressive supply return to regain market share. In contrast, Russia favored a conservative approach to avoid triggering another wave of price pressure.
The restrained increase signaled internal divisions but ultimately supported prices early in the week. Analysts said the move showed the group’s continued desire to manage the market carefully amid growing forecasts for a global crude surplus in the fourth quarter. However, with OPEC+ production already up by 2.7 million bpd year-to-date, concerns remain that the collective output path could still outpace demand growth going forward.
