It has been 13 days since the US House of Representatives ousted its Speaker – and there may yet be some distance to go before a replacement is found.
When eight conservative Republicans joined Democrats in the unprecedented vote to remove Kevin McCarthy, it exposed the deep fissures within the Republican party that controls the lower chamber of Congress.
Steve Scalise, Mr McCarthy’s long-time deputy, ended a short-lived bid for the gavel last week after failing to win enough support.
Now Jim Jordan – a right-wing rebel turned team player – is running for the job and has said he feels “real good” about clinching the 217 votes he needs to get it.
On Monday, Mr Jordan seemed to inch closer to securing the position after gaining several key endorsements from former detractors.
The vacuum at the very top of the US government has left the House unable to carry out its most basic functions.
Can Jordan win?
Mr Jordan is highly favoured by many conservative Republicans and counts on former President Donald Trump as a strong ally.
Several moderate lawmakers had previously expressed reluctance to vote for him. Some of them, such as Missouri’s Ann Wagner and Alabama’s Mike Rogers, appeared to backtrack on Monday and declared their support for Mr Jordan.
Mr Rogers – who reportedly said last week that there was little that Mr Jordan could do to sway him – wrote on social media that the two had “cordial, thoughtful and productive conservations over the past two days” and eventually came to agree on several policy points.
“I have always been a team player and supported what the majority of the Republican Conference agrees to,” he wrote. “Together, our Republican majority will be stronger to fight Joe Biden’s reckless agenda for America.”
In his 16 years in Congress, the Ohio lawmaker has often faced criticism for his poor record on passing legislation in the House and was once labelled a “legislative terrorist” by former Speaker John Boehner.
Colleagues have also expressed concern over his past inclinations for bomb-throwing rhetoric and disruptive tactics, as well as his alleged efforts to undermine Mr Scalise’s bid for the speakership last week.
Others have argued that Mr Jordan is not adept at fundraising; Speakers are expected to get donors to open their chequebooks for the party.
Behind closed doors on Friday, more than 50 Republicans said they would not back Mr Jordan, but those numbers have come down to 20 or less, the BBC’s US partner CBS News reported.
While the total number of remaining holdouts is unclear, Mr Jordan can only afford to lose only four votes.
But he and his supporters are expected to press for a vote on the floor on Tuesday, betting those opposed to him will eventually fold so as not to prolong Republicans’ internal dysfunction.
Other ways this can end
1. Another Republican gets 217 votes
Some of the anti-Jordan holdouts are currently working to suggest an alternative candidate who could get more support from the party’s centrist wing.
On Friday, it was Austin Scott, a little-known Georgia congressman who announced he was running for Speaker mere hours before Republicans met to cast an internal ballot.
In an embarrassing outcome for Mr Jordan, who is a familiar face in right-wing media, Mr Scott won as many as 81 votes for a bid he conceded was more about providing opposition than about winning the gavel.
After the vote, one Republican told reporters it was a red flag about Mr Jordan’s ability to win the gavel and, even if he does become Speaker, function effectively.
“If you can’t get your closest friends [to follow you], it begs the question: can you do anything?” Mario Diaz-Balart said. “Can you get anybody to follow you on really difficult questions?”
If the House Judiciary Committee chairman fails, more names will be floated in the coming days.
They include Tom Emmer, the third-highest ranking House Republican, and Kevin Hern, chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee.
Allies of Mr McCarthy have also left the door open to reinstating him as Speaker.
As things stand, all these options appear unlikely.
2. A temporary Speaker
Another way to end the House’s paralysis would see acting Speaker Patrick McHenry be granted extra powers on a temporary basis – for up to 30 or 90 days.
This would allow the House to function – and avoid a government shutdown in a month’s time – while a longer-term solution is found.
This would require some co-operation from Democrats to work out the details.
“It’s important that we get back to the business of running this country,” Ohio Republican Dave Joyce said of that option, according to the Washington Post.
But several of his colleagues don’t want a short-term fix, arguing ongoing negotiations over the budget and other key issues.
“Members want this resolved,” Florida’s Byron Donalds told reporters. “A caretaker is not what members are interested in, and frankly I agree.”
3. Democrats to the rescue
A third option would be for Republicans to agree with Democrats on a consensus Republican candidate.
This option, however, would entail concessions to the minority party. Democrats want to eliminate a new rule introduced in January that gives any member the power to bring a vote to the floor to overthrow the Speaker.
“There are only two paths forward,” Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Friday.
He said Republicans could either “triple down on the chaos” or “traditional Republicans can break away from the extremism [and] partner with Democrats on an enlightened path forward”.
Some lawmakers have suggested that five Republicans could switch sides and back Mr Jeffries for Speaker – but that looks very unlikely.
How it affects real world
The vacancy in one of the most important roles in US government comes at a bad time.
Without a Speaker, the chamber is unable to pass any bills or approve White House requests for emergency aid. That includes potential help for Israel amid its ongoing fight with Hamas.
In a sign of the growing impatience, the Senate is expected to take up an Israel aid package when it returns to session this week, hoping to put more pressure on the House to resolve its crisis.
A leaderless House also means that Congress is unable to pass any spending bills – even short-term measures – that would allow the government to avoid a potential shutdown in mid-November.
Speaking to the 60 Minutes programme on Sunday, President Joe Biden said he was concerned that Republicans no longer “look at [democracy] the same way you and I look at democracy”.
